GSL 2 Finals: Preview

Since we treat SC2 as a sport, it's surely required that in the run-up to the finals we must endlessly speculate on the outcome. Well, I have no idea who's going to win. If you've watched very much of the tournament at all, you probably know there is something of a clash of styles in store. Foxer is aggressive, daring, and a lover of low tech units. NesTea meanwhile plays a conventional but very solid style, knowing the timings that will maximize his results.

But Foxer is a smarter player than the people who moan about his "all marine" strategies imply. Although aggressive, he doesn't always (or even usually) put on non-stop pressure the way Kyrix did. Against FruitDealer and SangHo, he poked but didn't commit until a planned timing. As anyone who watched those games knows, the results were devastating. Against Kyrix there was non-stop action, but this was more Kyrix's doing than Foxer. The fact is Foxer's favorite build appears to be one barracks fast expand, a build that when successful denies Zerg their goal of securing a one base advantage. By using marines in such quantities, Foxer forces players to prepare defenses instead of teching up and also secures map control. He uses that control to secure a third much earlier than typical Terrans.

If NesTea can't find a way through Foxer's marines, he's done for. He knows that, and in interviews he seems confident he has the answer. If so, can Foxer adapt? Foxer was criticized for doing his marine build the first three games against Kyrix, but he did win the first game, after all. After Kyrix stopped it twice, he switched to a mass banshee build and won on Scrap Station. Against HopeTorture he used tanks on Blistering Sands and did well. So Foxer has other builds to fall back on. Whether or not he can crack NesTea is another story.

As for the maps, here they are in order, with the conventional wisdom about which race they favor:

1. Shakuras Plateau - Zerg
2. Lost Temple - Terran
3. Scrap Station - Zerg
4. Jungle Basin - Terran
5. Steppes of War - Terran
6. X'el Naga Caverns - Even
7. Metalopolis - Zerg

However, Foxer is hardly a conventional Terran. The mobility of his marine/dropship armies means he's effective on large maps. But as HopeTorture found out, he can kill you with early marine pressure if you don't defend well. A lot depends on how NesTea plans on countering Foxer's marine play.

Not knowing that, I'm reduced to guessing wildly, but I'd speculate that he can either put Foxer under pressure himself and thus dictate the game (as Kyrix did with some success) or sit back, turtle on two bases, and mix up his build to confound Foxer's timings. Either strategy, I feel, is suited to small maps. When pressuring, NesTea will want to be close to reduce reinforcement distance. If he's turtling, he doesn't want Foxer to be able to take distant expansions.

I guess I should also mention a lot of people feel NesTea should rush to infestors. I don't think this will work (Foxer will put you under too much pressure if you try to tech, and even if you get them, he's got a preternatural ability to spread marines out) but if that's the plan, smaller maps will help compensate for the slow speed of the infestor.

But who knows? If NesTea makes it to the later midgame, mutalisks can dominate large maps better than marines can. With game 1 being played on Shakuras Plateau, we'll hopefully get a good feel for how this will all play out. Tournament finals rarely live up to the hype, but on paper at least this one will be fascinating.